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Monday, November 21, 2011

What Does Warren Buffett See in Japan that Others are Too Impatient to See?

Famous long-term value investor Warren Buffett is visiting Japan for the first time, ostensibly to visit a Tungaloy Corp. plant in the earthquake and nuclear plant catastrophe-struck Fukushima prefecture. Tungaloy Corp. used to be a Toshiba (6502.T) subsidiary, but has since been sold to Iscar Metalworking Co., (IMC) an Israeli company that was Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK) largest acquisition of a non-U.S. firm. IMC acquired a 71.5% stake in Tungaloy, which makes tools for cars and planes, in 2008. The Tungaloy plant is in Iwaki, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant that leaked radiation after it was crippled by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.  A new Tungaloy plant was due to open in March, before the disaster delayed the opening as well as Mr. Buffett's planned visit. 


In May of this year, Buffett said in a press conference that he would be “delighted” to invest in Japan, and that his enthusiasm for the market was unchanged from six months earlier. Buffett told Tunaloy executives (as reported by Bloomberg) that “This is a wonderful day for me,” “The world has had its eye on Japan and especially this area."  Economically, however, it has not been so beautiful, even for Berkshire's insurance business, which reportedly lost about $1.1 billion from insurance claims. Buffett said at Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30 that the insurance industry had its second- worst quarter in terms of catastrophes worldwide.


Berkshire’s already has Asian investments such as a stake in Chinese carmaker BYD Co. and South Korea's Posco, the world’s third- largest steelmaker. Israeli IMC has also invested in TaeguTec Ltd., a South Korean cutting-tools maker, and Berkshire announced a plan this year to enter India’s insurance market by selling motor coverage as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.
So far however, there are no Japan names other than the indirect investment in Tungaloy, which is not listed. 


Nikkei Hits 2011 Closing Low, Marking Second-Lowest Volume

Domestic institutional investors are hopeful that his visit will revive waning interest in Japanese stocks, which have looked very cheap for some time as the entire TSE is again selling under book value. Japan stock professionals certainly could use some good news, as the stock market has been in a structural decline since peaking in December 1989, some 22 years ago! The Nikkei 225 however was unimpressed by the news of Mr. Buffett's visit, hitting a new 2011 low below the March earthquake low on extremely low volume, troubled by renewed strength in JPY and ongoing contagion in the Euroland debt crisis.